Chelsea lost Sunday’s Carabao Cup final by the narrowest of margins, with just one of the 22 players on the pitch missing in the penalty shootout after a thrilling 120 minutes. The Blues had three disallowed goals in that time, but all eyes are on Thomas Tuchel’s move to bring on Kepa Arrizabalaga for Edouard Mendy.

The goalkeeper change worked in the UEFA Super Cup in Belfast back in August, but it seemed a bizarre move after Mendy’s 120 minutes of brilliance, while he helped Senegal to a shootout win over Mo Salah’s Egypt last month. With Kepa likely to take up cup duties again in midweek, that’s where the focus will be for many.

Luton form should test Chelsea
This clash is a rematch from last season’s FA Cup Third Round – the final game of Frank Lampard’s tenure. However, there are echoes of one of the earliest games in Tuchel’s reign, when his Chelsea side travelled to Barnsley in last season’s Fifth Round.

The Blues met a Championship side in storming form, putting together a surprise run to the playoffs. That’s how Luton head into this game, with the hosts sixth after winning six of their last seven games.

The hosts have averaged two goals per game across their last seven at home, so I can see them causing problems for Chelsea in this clash, just as Barnsley did 12 months ago.

Chelsea backline remains vulnerable
While Mendy was immovable on Sunday, Luton face the easier task of getting by Kepa. The Blues have conceded in both rounds of the FA Cup so far, conceding at home to National League Chesterfield and League One Plymouth.

Luton come into this one in flying form, so expect them to pose a real threat to Chelsea’s defence. Meanwhile, only Man City and Liverpool have stopped Chelsea scoring across their last 16 games, so back the Blues to notch here too.

Both teams to score looks like the best way to go, while I’m backing Chelsea to win 2-1 in my correct score prediction. The Blues haven’t scored more than twice in a game across their last 10 since meeting Chesterfield, with those 1



译文(自动翻译仅供参考):

在上周日举行的卡拉保杯决赛中，切尔西队以极其微弱的优势输掉了比赛。经过了令人激动的120分钟，22名场上球员中只有一名在点球大战中缺席。当时蓝军有三个进球被判无效，但所有的目光都集中在托马斯·图切尔用阿里萨巴拉加换回爱德华·曼迪的举动上。

今年8月在贝尔法斯特举行的欧洲超级杯比赛中，门将的更换起到了作用，但在曼迪120分钟的精彩表现之后，这似乎是一个奇怪的举动，而上个月他帮助塞内加尔在点球大战中战胜了莫·萨拉赫的埃及。随着Kepa很可能在周中再次接手杯赛，这将是许多人关注的焦点。

卢顿的状态将考验切尔西
这场比赛是上赛季足总杯第三轮的重演，也是兰帕德任期内的最后一场比赛。然而，在图切尔执教的最早的一场比赛中，他带领的切尔西队在上赛季第五轮客场挑战巴恩斯利。

蓝军遇到了一支状态强劲的冠军球队，他们出人意料地进入了季后赛。这就是卢顿队如何进入这场比赛的，东道主队在过去七场比赛中赢了六场后排名第六。

在过去的7场主场比赛中，主队场均攻入2球，所以我可以看到他们在这场比赛中给切尔西制造了麻烦，就像12个月前巴恩斯利所做的那样。

切尔西的后防线依然脆弱
虽然曼迪在周日的比赛中表现不佳，但卢顿面临着更容易的任务——通过Kepa。到目前为止，蓝军在足总杯的两轮比赛中都有失球，在主场分别输给了国家联赛切斯特菲尔德和英甲普利茅斯。

卢顿在这场比赛中表现出色，所以他们会对切尔西的防守构成真正的威胁。同时，在过去的16场比赛中，只有曼城和利物浦阻止了切尔西的进球，所以支持蓝军也在这里。

两支球队都能进球看起来是最好的选择，而根据我的正确得分预测，我支持切尔西2-1获胜。自从对阵切斯特菲尔德之后，蓝军在过去的10场比赛中没有一场比赛进球超过2次，现在只有1次